Here's my forecast for November 2008...

First off the beginning of the month looks to be warm , then the bottom drops out .This all coming after a major storm in the NE last week bringing record snowfall. The NAO and the PNA look  slightly NEG neutral right now... however this will change by months end. On the other hand the AO  is dropping and will continue to do so all month before tanking. The AO does have too much of an affect here at the mid-latitude but it does have some correlation to our weather. Both the GFS and the Euro show a mild period for the first week or so of November , then show a trough developing in the east with riding taking place across the western CONUS by 7-8 days out. With the NAO becoming negative more amplification of troughs can than take place instead of shortwave progressive troughs.

The NAO is currently slightly NEG to neutral but will beginning to fall after the first week of November. What does this mean? Well this means that we will have a much better chance of seeing more amplification of troughs and ridges bringing down colder for the eastern CONUS and warm air filling up the western CONUS. Storms also tend to be bigger and stronger during a NEG NAO.
So overall it looks like a pattern change is l coming with colder temperatures and a more suppressed jet stream.

The Long range GFS and 10 day ECMWF are now beginning to show this with increasing heights and blocking towards the N. pole, along with colder temperatures and lowering heights further south for the eastern CONUS.

The Euro also is hinting at a trough developing in the eastern CONUS with 500mb anomalies dropping across the east as they soar across the west.

In November of 2000 a similar pattern took place. In the poles blocking took place and 500mb heights were well above normal. However , in the CONUS the heights were well below normal, bringing cold air across much of the country.

This November the NEG NAO and the tanking of the AO will combine with the POS PNA to give much of the eastern CONUS colder temperatures after mid-month. With a POS PNA ridging can be expected to develop across the western CONUS.

With the jet stream dripping down, mid-latitude storms will move across the Plains and move up the jet stream along the Eastern Coast of the US. The storms will have cold air on their backside and warm air on their front side. The GFS already hints the storms coming across the CONUS. With this interior parts of the NE will see snow from these storms.

Also with winter time coming , we can't forget about those Alberta Clippers. The first Alberta Clippers of the season will likley drop down from Canada this month, bringing quick shots of snow and cold air to the eastern CONUS. With each Alberta Clipper a few inches of snow can be expected from Erie to Buffalo to Syracuse to  the  mountains of WV to the western suburbs of Boston.


Now comes my maps/predictions for the EASTERN CONUS.

First my temperature outlook. I believe even after a mild start to November , the month will land up trending negative across much of the eastern CONUS after the big cool down in mid-month.

Next is my precipitation outlook. The beginning of November will come in like a lamb with dry conditions for the first week or so of November until a S/W may make its way through the eastern CONUS around the 8th bringing precipitation to much of the east.After that it looks like it may be a busy pattern taking place.

Now we will take a look at my snowfall predictions for the month of November. Many areas this month that did not see snow from the "big daddy "storm last week will likley their first snow this month. I think the lake effect snow machine will really get going through the GL after mid month when the cold air ushers in. A Nor' Easter or 2 may also bring snow to interior sections of the NE.

Finally, is my projected track of storms for November. I believe after the trough establishes itself across the eastern CONUS storms will ride the trough near the coast bringing rain on the frontside and a wintry mix/snow on the backside.

Now a breakdown of November's weather for the EASTERN CONUS.

Nov. 1-7 -A brief chill to start off, then warming up by the 3rd.Bone dry.

Nov. 8-15-A chill will be on its way from the 8th - 11th that may leave you inside next to the fireplace with some hot coco. Flurries can also be expected with a low that moves across the CONUS.Yet another brief warm up can be expected by the 15th before the bottom drops out.

Nov. 16-22-A storm will make its way across the eatsern CONUS along with the amplification of a trough , bringing sharply colder temperatures to the eastern CONUS.Snowflakes will be flying and you may have to bring out the shovels. Lake effect snow may become a major concern also.

Nov. 23-30-Cold weather stays in place across the eastern CONUS.Many areas of the NE may have a hard time seeing green on their lawns.

 


Comments

Hey
11/10/2008 19:47

Nice 3.6 inch recorded snowfall. No one in northern Erie county got close to 4 inches bro. You need to learn how to measure. Heres a website for you http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=8804. Your 3.6 inch recording got deleted from NWS because it was false. I live in Amherst and got an inch and a half. Not close to 4 inches.....Just because you like snow, doesnt mean you make it seem like you get more then you do. You cant measure grass and the snow, snow is 2 inches above the ground, on leaves and grass. That doesnt count. Dont let your love for the weather interfere with proper measurements.

Reply
11/11/2008 13:35

Hey buddy,

Listen I know how to take snow measurements okay? I recorded 3.6 inches on a car. And in fact someone in Kenmore,NY reported 3.5 inches which is just a stone throw away from here. Just relax.

Reply
Devin
11/11/2008 13:38

...ERIE COUNTY...
COLDEN 4.0 800 AM 11/10 LIGHT SNOW
EGGERTSVILLE 3.6 1115 PM 11/9
KENMORE 3.5 600 AM 11/10
BOSTON 3.0 640 AM 11/10
ALDEN 2.5 700 AM 11/10
WALES 2.5 800 AM 11/10
ALDEN 2.0 1230 AM 11/10
ELMA 2.0 700 AM 11/10
LANCASTER 2.0 1135 PM 11/9
ORCHARD PARK 2.0 1131 PM 11/9
AKRON 1.9 700 AM 11/10
EAST AURORA 1.5 630 AM 11/10
WEST SENECA 1.4 700 AM 11/10
BUFFALO AIRPORT 1.2 700 AM 11/10

Reply
anonymous
11/13/2008 17:08

Devin what is your take on any lake effect for this Sunday night into Monday morning?

Reply
anonymous
11/13/2008 17:27

Devin, what are your thoughts on this Sunday night into Monday morning's lake effect potential?

Thanks.

Reply
11/18/2008 18:02

Sorry for not responding I had a lengthy computer malfunction but I'm now back..

There is some potential for some lake snow's southeast of the lakes (just like this previous event) and significant accumulation is possible. After a clipper system drops down Wednesday night into Thursday winds will become NW blowing over lake Erie , and places on the Chautauqua Ridge and southern tier of WNY may in fact see a world of white by this weekend. Same ball game off lake Ontario.

Reply
12/18/2008 13:49

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_39HR.gif

Reply
12/18/2008 13:55

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BUF

Reply
Juju the cat
12/18/2008 15:44

Devin, I like the site. I also like the hefty accumulations on the map you just posted!

Reply
Juju the cat
12/18/2008 16:09

Ayuud, we are looking pretty good precip wise.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/panel/wrf_precip36_F36.html

Reply
Sled Hill
01/12/2009 17:53

Hay Devin,

Is this the last thread?? It looks like it's been a while since anyone's posted. I was looking for the 4 degree guarantee.

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