Well yes , In fact this October will bring lake effect... however it should be primary rain with a few flakes mixing in the higher elevations at night above 2000 feet. Although nothing will accumulate it could be exciting for all those people who love the snow...

FROM THE NWS IN BUFFALO,NY FORECAST DESCUSSION

A COMPLEX UPPER UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITHIN THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL OPEN AND LIFT OUT TONIGHT AS THE NEXT AND DEEPER
LOW DROPS FROM JAMES BAY TO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND
ALOFT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL SHOW A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY
AS THE CURRENT COLD POOL OF TEMPS AROUND -25C SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...REBOUNDS A BIT TO A -18C TO -22C RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN THE COLDEST CORE OF NEAR -30C SETTLES IN JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A
DEEP UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND FURTHER INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AS THE SECOND LOW DROPS TOWARD THE LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WELL
ALIGNED ALONG THE LENGTHS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN INCREASES FROM THE LONGER FETCH AND
THE LONGER DWELL TIME...MODIFYING THE COLD AIR WITH WARM LAKE
MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES...FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER TO SOUTHERN METRO BUFFALO OFF LAKE
ERIE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL TO NEAR WATERTOWN OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS FARTHER
INLAND.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE EASTERN LAKES LATE THURS NT AND
EARLY FRI...WITH CORRESPONDING WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW BY
FRIDAY. INITIALLY...THE THURS NT PERIOD WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH
WSW FLOW ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKES AND PLENTY OF UPLIFT.
850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE ZERO TO -2C
RANGE...CREATING DELTA-T`S OF 18-20C AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. SO
LOOK FOR ROBUST LK EFFECT RAINS ON THURS EVE DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ERIE. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPS...GRAUPEL AND
THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

TROF SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
IT. FLOW TURNS GENERALLY NW ALTHOUGH MAY HANG W/SW IN BUF AREA AT
SFC ONLY. WILL STILL CARRY CHC POPS ALL AREAS WITH LOW LIKELY SE OF
THE LAKES. TEMPS ONLY L-M 50S WITH SUBZERO 850 MB TEMPS.

MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY LIFTS UP INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A WEAKENING ZONAL FLOW. STILL SOME TROFFING HANGING
BACK TWD LK ONTARIO...HELPED ALONG BY THE WARM LAKE...SO HELD LOW
CHC POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT KEPT REST OF AREA DRY AS SFC
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE LAKES. LOOK FOR A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS STILL SOME 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
(M50S).

&&



 


Comments

12/08/2010 00:10

thank you for your post!

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